Accel to Lead a $5 Billion Round for Thinking Machines Lab at a $40 Billion Valuation: What Founders Can Learn

Thinking Machines Lab, the AI company founded by Mira Murati, is reportedly raising $5 billion at a $40 billion pre-money valuation, led by Accel, according to Tech Funding News on November 6, 2026, citing a Business Insider report. The round is not confirmed and could close within days. By our arithmetic, a $40 billion pre-money valuation implies about $45 billion post-money, which is the figure the report uses for comparisons.

The Numbers

The company was founded in San Francisco in February 2025 by Murati, a former chief technology officer of OpenAI. It raised a $2 billion seed round at a $12 billion valuation in July 2025, so the reported valuation is well over three times that. It is about 20 percent below the $50 billion figure that was discussed in late 2025. Accel took part in the seed round with a16z, Nvidia, AMD, ServiceNow, Cisco and Jane Street. If the round closes, Thinking Machines will have raised about $7 billion in disclosed funding, excluding an undisclosed Nvidia investment in March. Only Accel is named in the new round, and the use of funds has not been disclosed, though the report expects it to go to computing power.

Revenue and the Valuation Gap

A source told TechCrunch in September that annual revenue exceeded $100 million, which would put the valuation at up to 400 times revenue. The report compares that with OpenAI's $1.25 trillion valuation, which is about 25 times its September run rate. The company earns money through Tinker, a product that lets organisations train their own models on their own data, with Thinking Machines supplying the computing and charging usage fees. A custom large language model training platform market forecast by BRC at $8.63 billion by 2030 is a fraction of the valuation, so the report argues investors must be valuing the models themselves and not just the fine-tuning fees.

The Models and the Nvidia Link

The company released its first open-weight model, Inkling, on July 15 and Inkling 2 Small on November 5. Open-weight means other organisations can download the model files and run them on their own hardware. Thinking Machines plans to release full weights under an Apache 2.0 licence the week after, once external safety testing is complete. Its benchmark table shows Inkling 2 Small ahead of Mistral Large 4 on the Artificial Analysis index, though several Chinese open-weight models score higher. In March the company and Nvidia announced a multi-year partnership to deploy at least one gigawatt of Nvidia's Vera Rubin systems, with the first deployment planned for early 2027. In September Nvidia was reported to be considering around half of a $5 billion to $6 billion round.

The Founder Challenge

From October 2025 to January 2026, three of Murati's co-founders left for Meta and OpenAI, according to the report. That is a reminder that departures of senior founders can follow a very large first raise, and they affect how investors judge continuity.

Lessons for Founders

Mega seed rounds create mega expectations. A $12 billion seed valuation set a high bar, and the new round is being priced against both the seed and the late-2025 talks. Founders raising large early rounds should plan how they will show progress against the next price.

Build revenue alongside research. Even with $100 million in reported revenue, the valuation multiple is extreme, so founders should show a clear product that customers pay for and the margin on it.

Keep the founding team aligned. Co-founder exits can weaken an investor story. Founders should document vesting, roles and decision rights early, and review how departures affect the cap table and dilution.

Treat reports carefully. This round is based on a media report, and terms may change. Do not use an unconfirmed valuation as a benchmark in your own term sheet negotiation.

What We Could Not Confirm

We relied on Tech Funding News, which cites Business Insider and TechCrunch, and we found no statement from Thinking Machines or Accel. The revenue figure comes from an unnamed source, and the round size, valuation and investor list could change.

Key Takeaways

Thinking Machines Lab is reportedly raising $5 billion at $40 billion pre-money, led by Accel, about 20 percent below the figure discussed in late 2025. Revenue is reported at more than $100 million, so the valuation rests on belief in its models. The next signal is the open release of Inkling 2 Small weights.

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